Gas to Become Primary Energy Source in 2026

  • Sep 11, 2019
  • Rigzone

DNV GL sees global gas demand overtaking demand for oil in 2026 to become the world’s primary energy source.

That’s according to the company’s latest Energy Transition Outlook report, which predicts that global oil demand will peak in the mid-2020s and gas demand will keep rising to 2033. Gas demand is then anticipated to plateau and remain dominant until the end of the forecast period in 2050, when it is expected to account for over 29 percent of the world’s energy supply.

Oil and gas will still meet 46 percent of world energy demand in 2050, according to DNV GL’s latest Energy Transition Outlook report.

Unconventional onshore gas will increase from 2019 through to the end of the forecast period, growing by 68 percent from 2017 production levels, the report highlights. Conventional onshore gas production is forecasted to be maintained at today’s output rates until the late 2030s. It is then forecasted to decline slowly to mid-century, ending at about 19 percent lower than 2017.

Offshore gas production is anticipated to rise until 2040, when it is expected to be 58 percent greater than in 2017. In 2050, it is still forecasted to be more than a third (39 percent) higher than in 2017.

DNV GL forecasts global upstream gas capital expenditure to reach $737 billion in 2025 before dropping to $587 billion in 2050.

Back in June, the International Energy Agency projected that global demand for natural gas is set to rise by more than 10 percent over the next five years, reaching 4.3 trillion cubic meters in 2024. Earlier this year, Equinor revealed that it expects global gas demand to grow by around 10 percent towards 2030. Back in February, the company said it sees “strong market opportunities for gas”.

The 2019 Energy Transition Outlook provides an independent forecast of developments in the world energy mix to 2050, according to DNV GL, which describes itself as a global quality assurance and risk management company.

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